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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."